tax prep wages and salaries hit 4-year high

if current trends hold, the accounting industry will process about 150 million individual tax returns in 2026 — roughly 0.4 percent more than last year — with nearly the same number of workers..

the imbalance between rising labor costs and minimal hiring growth is emerging just as the tax filing pipeline shows mixed signals. by the week ending feb. 20, the irs had received 41.377 million electronic returns, down 1.2 percent from 41.896 million a year earlier, while returns filed by tax professionals fell 2.9 percent year over year to 17.795 million, according to the irs weekly filing statistics.

that decline followed an even steeper early-season gap. by the week ending feb. 6, tax professionals had submitted 7.865 million e-filed returns, down 9.6 percent from 8.700 million a year earlier, even though self-prepared filings declined only 1.8 percent, highlighting the early-season slowdown in preparer-filed returns.

the gap narrowed as the season progressed. by feb. 13, professional e-filings totaled 12.724 million, still 5.1 percent below the prior year’s 13.413 million, while self-prepared returns edged 0.2 percent higher to 19.024 million, suggesting households continued shifting toward do-it-yourself filing while preparer-filed returns lagged.

the 卡塔尔世界杯常规比赛时间 tax prep productivity index – returns filed per employee

total individual filings are expected to reach about 150 million returns in 2026, roughly 0.4 percent more than the 149.4 million filed last year, while employment in accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping and payroll services has grown only about 0.3 percent year over year, leaving the workforce essentially unchanged at about 1.13 million workers. at the same time, compensation is rising much faster: average hourly earnings for accountants and tax professionals are up roughly 4–5 percent from a year earlier, and average weekly hours have increased about 3 percent, indicating firms are expanding labor input primarily by paying workers more and extending workweeks rather than hiring new staff. the early filing data point in the same direction. through feb. 20, tax professionals had filed 17.8 million electronic returns, 2.9 percent fewer than a year earlier, even as the average refund climbed more than 10 percent, suggesting that returns may be arriving slightly later but are larger in dollar value — a pattern that typically compresses work into the peak weeks before the april deadline.

refund activity shows the opposite pattern: fewer returns but larger payouts. through feb. 20, the irs had issued $109.329 billion in refunds, up 6.9 percent from $102.253 billion a year earlier, while the average refund rose 10.2 percent to $3,804, reflecting larger payments even as filing volumes dipped.

direct-deposit refunds followed the same trajectory. average direct-deposit refunds increased 8.7 percent to $3,809, while the total dollar value of refunds paid through direct deposit rose 8.4 percent to $110.825 billion, despite the number of direct-deposit refunds falling 0.3 percent year over year.

the early filing slowdown is typical in the first weeks of the tax season, when taxpayers are still waiting for forms such as w-2s and 1099s. but the labor market for accountants suggests firms are preparing for heavy workloads even without significantly expanding payrolls.

across the accounting services sector, employment remains concentrated in three main segments. offices of certified public accountants employ roughly 520,000 to 540,000 workers, representing about 45 percent to 50 percent of total sector employment. tax preparation services employ roughly 100,000 to 110,000 workers during most of the year, though seasonal hiring typically increases headcounts during filing season. bookkeeping and payroll processing firms account for roughly 450,000 workers, representing the remaining 40 percent of sector employment.

pushing for output

wage growth, however, is strongest in the tax-focused portions of the industry. tax preparers are seeing annual pay increases of roughly 4 percent to 6 percent, far exceeding the sector’s roughly 0 percent to 1 percent employment growth, indicating firms are competing for experienced workers even as hiring slows.

hours worked also show signs of rising utilization. average weekly hours in the accounting sector have increased roughly 3 percent year over year, meaning firms are absorbing demand through longer workweeks rather than new hires.

production and nonsupervisory employees — the frontline accountants, preparers and bookkeepers who perform most billable work — account for roughly 70 percent of the sector’s workforce, leaving supervisors and managers at roughly 30 percent. that ratio has remained largely stable over the past several years, suggesting the industry has not significantly shifted toward a more top-heavy staffing model.

instead, firms appear to be squeezing more output from essentially the same number of workers. the early filing data and the labor statistics tell the same story from different directions.

tax preparers filed 17.795 million electronic returns through feb. 20, while the accounting sector employs only about 1.13 million workers, meaning the industry processes tens of millions of returns each season with little net workforce growth.

the result is a tax season defined not by hiring surges but by productivity. even with professional e-filings down between 2.9 percent and 9.6 percent in early february, firms are paying workers more and extending workweeks, indicating they expect workloads to intensify as the filing season accelerates toward the april deadline.